CROSBY Research – Crosby Bi-noculars (Bi-weekly Issue 39)

24 Jul 2023

The Fed will publish the FOMC Statement next Wednesday, followed by a press conference where the Chair, Jerome Powell, will answer questions from financial journalists. The Fed is widely expected to raise the funds rate by another 25bp. In fact, the target rate probability for the July 26 Fed meeting is 99.8% for another rate hike, according to CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of more hikes drops precipitously after that – with the highest odds of another hike coming in November at less than 27%.